1. Thank you for the opportunity to speak here today.

谢谢给我今天在这里演讲的机会。

2. At past Jackson Hole conferences, I have discussed broad topics such as the ever-changing structure of the economy and the challenges of conducting monetary policy under high uncertainty. Today, my remarks will be shorter, my focus narrower, and my message more direct.

在以前的杰克逊霍尔会议上，我讨论的话题很广泛，比如不断变化的经济结构，以及在高度不确定的环境中实施货币政策的挑战。今天，我的讲话将会更简短，重点更集中，信息更直接。

3. The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. The burdens of high inflation fall heaviest on those who are least able to bear them.

联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)目前的首要任务是将通胀降到2%的目标水平。物价稳定是美联储的职责所在（注：写进了《联邦储备法案》），也是我们经济平稳运行的基石。没有价格稳定，经济的运行对任何人来说都将是不合意的。特别是，如果没有价格稳定，我们将无法恢复有利于所有人的、持久的和强劲的劳动力市场。高通胀最沉重的负担将会落在那些最无力承受的人的身上。

评议：美联储的货币政策现在非常关注分配与公平。

20世纪70年代中期以来，美国贫富分化问题日渐突出。这在收入流量与财富存量分配格局中都有体现。一般认为，其原因主要是结构性的——技能偏好性技术进步、经济的全球化和金融化、市场集中度和企业议价能力的提升、数字经济的“赢家通吃”特征等。长期以来，美联储货币政策目标并未明确包含分配的维度，但越来越多的证据显示，分配格局的恶化却直接影响到“物价稳定”和“最大就业”目标的实现，因为贫富分化是导致经济长期停滞、压抑自然利率和物价水平的重要原因。所以，如何更好地调节收入分配已经成为美联储货币政策的题中之意。

2008年大危机以来，量化宽松政策在托底整体经济和阻遏风险传染的同时，也会通过资产价格重估效应而加剧财富分配的不均等，这又反过来影响到经济复苏的持续性，提高货币政策面临“零利率下线”约束的长期性。所以，美联储必须考虑货币政策的分配效应。疫情冲击的特殊性在于，大量就业者退出了劳动力队伍，劳动参与率大幅下挫，这使得官方失业率显著低估了真实失业水平和失业缺口。后疫情时代，被低估的失业率和就业市场的“K型复苏”特征成为美联储退出非常规政策的“绊脚石”。

4. Restoring price stability will take some time and requires using our tools forcefully to bring demand and supply into better balance. Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth. Moreover, there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions. While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.

恢复价格稳定还需要一段时间，这需要我们有力地运用货币政策工具，使需求和供应更好地平衡。为了降低通胀，经济增长速度可能在一段时间内会持续低于潜在增速。而且，劳动力市场状况很可能会有所弱化。利率的上升、经济增长速度的放缓和就业市场的疲软都会降低通胀，但也会给家庭和企业带来一些痛苦。这些都是降低通胀不幸的代价。如果不能实现价格稳定，损失会更严重。

评议：供不应求是当前通胀的成因，货币政策只能作用于需求，故只能通过收缩需求压制通胀。鲍威尔接受了压制通胀会牺牲短期经济增长的事实，但强调这是“两害相权取其轻”，算是在为后文做铺垫。

5. The U.S. economy is clearly slowing from the historically high growth rates of 2021, which reflected the reopening of the economy following the pandemic recession. While the latest economic data have been mixed, in my view our economy continues to show strong underlying momentum. The labor market is particularly strong, but it is clearly out of balance, with demand for workers substantially exceeding the supply of available workers. Inflation is running well above 2 percent, and high inflation has continued to spread through the economy. While the lower inflation readings for July are welcome, a single month's improvement falls far short of what the Committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down.

相对于2021年历史最高水平的经济增速而言——反映了大流行冲击后的经济重启，美国经济增长率开始明显放缓。虽然最新的经济数据好坏参半，但在我看来，我们的经济继续保持着强劲的动能。劳动力市场尤其强劲，但它显然是失衡的，对工人的需求大大超过了可用工人的供应。通货膨胀率远高于2%，高通货膨胀率继续在经济中蔓延。尽管7月通胀数据下降了，这令人欣慰，但单个月的下降还远不足以使委员会确信通胀的拐点已经出现。

评议：如何才能让FOMC确信通胀的拐点已经确立了？这是分析的要点，显然，7月单月的小幅下行是不满足条件的。个人认为，既要关注通胀的水平，也要关注结构、动态的路径和波动率。