医药百页年度策略：核心资产，2020爱还在不在？用“四率模型”再看核心资产的宽度、深度、长度、高度【安信医药马帅团队】（医药100和中证医药）

2020年核心资产的爱还在不在？我们认为：医药新周期元年，应该用“四率”再看核心资产的“四度”；另外19年个股性价比策略失灵，20年或将回归。

医药行业近3年政策频出，IQVIA预计19年中国医药行业增速4.5%，相较18年的6.2%大幅跳水，19年行业增速为近20年最低增速，我们将19年称之为中国医药市场新周期元年。20年增速预计进一步下滑至4.3%；从两倍于GDP增速，到慢于GDP增速，仅用了约8年时间，毫无疑问医药行业目前已处于整体性的资产荒，当前及下一个相当长的阶段，二级市场上医药板块的“盛宴”注定只有部分核心资产才能参与（核心资产的内生增速25%+、30%+、甚至还有50%+）。持续资产荒背景下对于核心资产估值高低的评价，如果仅仅根据历史经验（医药新周期背景下多数历史经验不再奏效）使用PE这一单一指标去评价贵与不贵，往往会“提前下车”或“不敢上车”，进而与长牛擦肩而过。

医药新周期背景下：安信医药团队率先提出2020年用“四率”分析核心资产的“四度”，即用“四率模型”（总需求率（患病率）、诊疗渗透率、企业市占率、业务国际化率）评价核心资产的“四度”，即核心资产的宽度（赛道的宽广程度、细分领域的景气度）、深度（龙头公司护城河的深度）、长度（高景气度高增长的持续时长）、高度（公司未来规模与市值高度）。通过“四率模型”的分析（具体分析详见P22、P23），我们提出：只要四率中，有至少两个率（如果包括诊疗方式渗透率提升那更好）还在快速提升过程中，即便当前估值较高，中长期看，市值或将仍有可观的向上空间。四率实质性提升的效果越好，该资产中长期业绩高增长的持续性或将越好。当核心资产的“四率”提升进程一个一个逐步衰竭时，则可以考虑逐步减仓，直至“四率”完全衰竭则一股不留。这里需要指出的是：“四率”的变化是动态的、相对的，长期的趋势需要短期（逐季度）的跟踪与验证。

19年医药板块的另一特点是：个股“性价比”投资策略的失灵，即各个赛道的顶级龙头如恒瑞医药、爱尔眼科、药明康德等从较贵走向了很贵，又走向了更贵，跑赢了估值&增速匹配程度更好的医药1.5线或2线龙头（具备更好的性价比）。展望2020年：我们预计“性价比”策略或将回归，即在医药资产荒（新周期）背景下，只要一线龙头的增速不下降，高估值或无下调空间，投资正收益可能更多体现在业绩增长方面；1.5线或2线核心资产则有望在业绩与估值双升条件下贡献更大的收益弹性。

我们重点看好和推荐的公司如下：

高端新特药（创新药、生长激素、吸入制剂等）：治疗渗透率仍在快速提升，推荐：恒瑞医药、中国生物制药、长春高新、健康元；

CXO：总需求率、国际化率不断提升，受益于加大研发和全球产业链转移，推荐：药明康德、泰格医药、凯莱英、康龙化成、九洲药业、药石科技；

疫苗：接种率（渗透率）还是不高，产业集中度（市占率）或快速提升，推荐：康泰生物、智飞生物；医疗服务（眼科、口腔、体检）：各细分赛道渗透率仍在上升通道中，推荐：爱尔眼科、美年健康、通策医疗；器械（IVD、血液净化、支架等）：医疗技术的使用在医院地位逐步提升，推荐：迈瑞医疗、健帆生物、乐普医疗、安图生物、万孚生物；医疗美容：人皆爱美，总需求率巨大，各项技术渗透仍处于早期，推荐：华熙生物。

👇 PDF完整原版113页报告下载地址：

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【或点击正文左下角阅读原文可直接下载】

欢迎各位读者联系安信医药团队：

     马帅，首席分析师，TEL：18321356864

     齐震，分析师，TEL：13816761715

     冯雪云，研究助理，TEL：15201468922

     陈嘉文，研究助理，TEL：18621072019

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欢迎各位读者与我们联系：

马帅，首席分析师，TEL：18321356864

齐震，分析师，TEL：13816761715

冯雪云，研究助理，TEL：15201468922

陈嘉文，研究助理，TEL：18621072019

报告附录：医药板块所有个股信息整理

序号证券代码证券简称年初以来涨幅

市值

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